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Favorable Market Prospects for Bitcoin
A prominent financial research boutique, Fundstrat, predicts a stratospheric rise in Bitcoin (BTC) price exceeding $150,000 before the close of 2024. Fundstrat bases this optimistic forecast on the assumption that the current suite of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States gain regulatory approval.
A Bright Outlook Dependent on Regulatory Decisions
In a discussion on CNBC's Squawk Box on August 16, Fundstrat’s managing partner and research lead, Tom Lee, posited that Bitcoin could see a significant price increase if the Bitcoin spot ETFs gain approval. This is due to the change in the supply-demand dynamics in Bitcoin’s favor.
Lee was assertive when quizzed about the potential price of Bitcoin by the end of 2024. But he noted that this projection hinges on the approval of a US-based Bitcoin spot ETF, since Europe already has Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Could Dominate Trading
As per senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, the United States currently accounts for an astonishing 97.7% of global trading volume for cryptocurrency-related ETFs. Balchunas suggested that this could rise even further to a nearly total monopoly of 99.5% if spot Bitcoin ETFs get the green light.
In contrast, even if the ETF applications were to be dismissed, Lee is still optimistic. He anticipates Bitcoin’s price to rise significantly due to the next halving event, projected for April 2024.
High-Stakes Applications Under Review
In June, renowned players in Wall Street such as Invesco, Fidelity, Wisdom Tree, Valkyrie, and notably, BlackRock – the world's largest asset manager, applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF with the SEC.
Fate of these financial giants may hang in balance until 2024 as the SEC is allowed 240 days from the start of the review process to finalize their decision on an application. However, Grayscale's appeal to morph its GBTC trust product into a Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to have a much expedited resolution.
Bloomberg ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, predict a 65% likelihood of these Bitcoin spot ETFs gaining approval – thanks to the hefty boost from BlackRock’s application.
Speculations on Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
Others have hinted at a $100,000 Bitcoin price coming sooner than predicted, with Blockstream CEO Adam Back placing bets on Bitcoin hitting this landmark in the month preceding the halving event.
Yet, some take a contrasting view. Jesse Myer, co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, suggested on August 15 that the market might only adjust to the post-halving reality 12-18 months after the event. He stated “Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving.”
